EU guns for China
French Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Rafarin is visiting China next week. A central point of his visit will whether or not to lift the arms embargo imposed on China in 1989 after Tiananmen.
France and Germany are pushing for the lift of the embargo. They argue that the European code of conduct (link in French) that will be enforced will be sufficient to monitor the arms sales and prevent any transfer of critical technology. Case in point: a French watchdog agency (CIEEMG) has recently refused to Thales and Sagem the right to equip Chinese military plane JF7. Italy, a staunch ally of the US, has on the other hand agreed to equip the plane.
The US has increased its criticism of the lift and has threatened retaliatory actions against Europe such as cancelling all military contracts between European and American firms. At risk: the potential sale of EADS tanker aircrafts to the US army, the collaboration between BAE and Boeing on the JSF and much more.
So why are the US and Japan against and the EU for the lift? First it's about money. Not so much for the arms market (Russia is a long time suppliers of the Chinese army with 90% of the market and this won't change, embargo or not) but in all other area such as commercial aircraft, cars and other industry, the EU is the biggest trade partner of China. The embargo lift will increase the economic cooperation between the two partners. Then, the main other issue is the way China is perceived in the future. The US and Japan view the Middle Kingdom as a potential military threat, whereas Europe believes that the dependence China has on foreign trade makes it condemned to pacifism.
How is this going to end? As usual in diplomacy, it will be a grey answer. My guess is that the EU won't lift the embargo now but will leave the issue opened for future talks. Finally, I believe it would be a mistake to weaken the fragile reconciliation between the EU and the US over this Chinese issue.
Le Monde has a couple of interesting articles on the issue (in French).
France and Germany are pushing for the lift of the embargo. They argue that the European code of conduct (link in French) that will be enforced will be sufficient to monitor the arms sales and prevent any transfer of critical technology. Case in point: a French watchdog agency (CIEEMG) has recently refused to Thales and Sagem the right to equip Chinese military plane JF7. Italy, a staunch ally of the US, has on the other hand agreed to equip the plane.
The US has increased its criticism of the lift and has threatened retaliatory actions against Europe such as cancelling all military contracts between European and American firms. At risk: the potential sale of EADS tanker aircrafts to the US army, the collaboration between BAE and Boeing on the JSF and much more.
So why are the US and Japan against and the EU for the lift? First it's about money. Not so much for the arms market (Russia is a long time suppliers of the Chinese army with 90% of the market and this won't change, embargo or not) but in all other area such as commercial aircraft, cars and other industry, the EU is the biggest trade partner of China. The embargo lift will increase the economic cooperation between the two partners. Then, the main other issue is the way China is perceived in the future. The US and Japan view the Middle Kingdom as a potential military threat, whereas Europe believes that the dependence China has on foreign trade makes it condemned to pacifism.
How is this going to end? As usual in diplomacy, it will be a grey answer. My guess is that the EU won't lift the embargo now but will leave the issue opened for future talks. Finally, I believe it would be a mistake to weaken the fragile reconciliation between the EU and the US over this Chinese issue.
Le Monde has a couple of interesting articles on the issue (in French).
posted by k at 8:30 AM
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